Commodity markets remain firmly in positive territory in 2026, with the Bloomberg Commodity Index up 24.04% year-to-date and the S&P GSCI gaining 25.27%. Persistent geopolitical tensions, disruptions to energy flows, supply constraints, and a weaker US Dollar continue to support prices across much of the commodity complex.
Energy remains the dominant driver. Brent crude trades at $88.95 per barrel, up 46.18% year-to-date, while WTI stands at $82.51 per barrel, up 43.70%. Both benchmarks remain broadly flat over the past month following another strong weekly advance.
Geopolitical risk continues to underpin oil prices. Negotiations surrounding the Strait of Hormuz remain at a standstill, while renewed fighting in Lebanon and additional attacks on shipping have reinforced concerns surrounding regional supply. Speculative positioning has become increasingly bullish, with money managers raising Brent net-long exposure and WTI open interest increasing.
Supply routes are also being disrupted. Asian refiners are facing difficulties securing vessels willing to transit certain waterways, while Chinese refiners are paying premiums for Russian crude. Saudi Arabia has meanwhile adjusted its September pricing for Asian customers as Gulf producers continue to navigate uncertainty surrounding regional shipping routes.
Precious metals have also strengthened. Gold trades at approximately $4,395 per ounce, gaining 9.41% over the past month and remaining modestly positive year-to-date. Dollar weakness, declining expectations for Federal Reserve tightening, and geopolitical safe-haven demand have supported the recent rally. ETF flows, however, present a more mixed picture, with institutional holdings declining year-to-date despite higher prices.
Silver has been particularly strong over the past month, gaining 17.50%, benefiting from its dual role as both a precious and industrial metal. Platinum and palladium have also recovered significantly over the past month but remain negative for the year as electric vehicle adoption continues to weigh on longer-term autocatalyst demand.
Natural gas continues to present a sharp regional divergence. Henry Hub prices remain down 28.05% year-to-date amid abundant US supply, while European natural gas prices have risen as geopolitical tensions compound already tight regional storage conditions. European gas inventories stand at approximately 61% of capacity compared with a five-year seasonal average of 78%, with Germany particularly exposed ahead of the heating season.
Copper is the most significant development within base metals. LME copper is approaching record levels at approximately $14,160 per metric ton, up 13.98% year-to-date. The physical market remains exceptionally tight, with spot copper trading at a substantial premium to three-month contracts. Structural demand from AI data center construction and the energy transition, combined with constrained mine supply, continues to support the market.
Zinc has gained 20.50% year-to-date, while aluminum remains firmly positive. Nickel has recorded more modest gains amid continued Indonesian supply growth, while iron ore remains the only major base metal covered to decline year-to-date, reflecting persistent weakness in China's property sector and subdued steel demand.
Overall, the commodity rally continues to reflect a combination of geopolitical risk and structural supply-demand pressures. Energy remains supported by Middle East disruptions, precious metals continue to benefit from macroeconomic uncertainty, and copper's increasingly tight physical market highlights the growing impact of AI infrastructure and energy-transition demand.
