Commodity markets continue to show significant divergence, with crude oil delivering exceptional year-to-date gains while natural gas remains under pressure and precious metals experience renewed momentum.
Oil remains the standout commodity story of 2026. Brent crude trades at $85.04 per barrel, up 1.78% on the day and 39.75% year-to-date, while WTI stands at $79.55 per barrel, up 1.75% on the day and 38.54% for the year. Both benchmarks have gained approximately 11% to 12% over the past month alone.
Persistent supply disruptions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz remain the primary driver behind the strength in crude prices, maintaining a significant geopolitical premium within the market. Brent has remained above $84 per barrel for four consecutive days, while ADNOC Gas has announced an expansion investment plan exceeding $8 billion, reinforcing confidence among Gulf producers in sustained elevated energy prices.
Natural gas presents a dramatically different picture. Henry Hub prices stand at $2.56/MMBtu and have declined 29.60% year-to-date, making natural gas the weakest-performing major commodity covered. Elevated US production, mild summer weather, and ample storage have contributed to the decline. The resulting divergence between oil, up approximately 39% this year, and natural gas, down almost 30%, represents one of the most significant cross-commodity dislocations of 2026.
European natural gas has followed a different trajectory, rising 5.5% in the latest session to €58.56/MWh amid tighter regional supply conditions and greater exposure to Middle Eastern LNG flows.
Gold has regained significant momentum following weaker-than-expected US employment data. Spot bullion trades at $4,328.79 per ounce after gaining 6.77% over the past week—its strongest weekly performance since January. July's employment report showed a contraction of 23,000 jobs alongside downward revisions to previous months, reducing expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate increases and providing support for precious metals.
ETF flows have also turned positive, with gold ETFs recording a third consecutive day of inflows and total holdings reaching their highest level since late June. The People's Bank of China is reportedly continuing to accumulate gold in Hong Kong as part of broader efforts to support the city's development as a major bullion trading hub.
Silver has outperformed gold over the shorter term, gaining 9.75% over the past week and 6.64% over the past month. Stronger retail demand has also emerged, with Perth Mint reporting a substantial increase in silver coin and bar sales during July.
Overall, commodity markets continue to display sharply contrasting trends. Oil remains one of the strongest-performing major assets of 2026 due to geopolitical supply risks, natural gas continues to struggle amid abundant US supply, and precious metals are benefiting from renewed expectations for a less restrictive Federal Reserve policy outlook.
