Commodity markets continue to reflect a combination of geopolitical disruption, structural supply constraints, and sharply different regional fundamentals. Crude oil remains one of the strongest-performing major assets of 2026, European natural gas has experienced an even more dramatic surge, and copper continues to benefit from tightening physical supply.
WTI crude trades at $96.45 per barrel, up 68.0% year-to-date, while Brent stands at $101.40, up 66.6%. The US-Iran war and its disruption to Middle Eastern energy flows remain the dominant drivers of this year's gains.
Both benchmarks have nevertheless retreated significantly from their 2026 highs. WTI reached $119.48 in March, while Brent peaked at $126.41 in April. More recently, US naval operations have progressively improved shipping conditions through the Strait of Hormuz, with oil and LNG shipments reaching their highest level in six months during the two weeks to September 19.
Physical constraints remain significant. A shortage of available supertankers is making some long-distance crude trades uneconomical, while US retail diesel prices have risen to $5.783 per gallon, approaching their historical record.
Natural gas markets present one of the year's most striking regional divergences. US Henry Hub trades at $2.836/MMBtu and remains down 23.1% year-to-date amid abundant domestic supply and relatively mild weather.
European TTF gas, by contrast, trades at €74.07/MWh and has surged 163% year-to-date—the largest increase of any commodity covered in the analysis. Qatari LNG exports through the Strait of Hormuz have slowed dramatically, forcing European and Asian importers to compete for alternative supplies.
Asian spot LNG prices remain elevated at approximately $26.82/MMBtu. Although hopes for a diplomatic resolution have provided some relief, market participants continue to warn that even a reopening of the Strait would not immediately restore LNG flows to pre-war levels.
Precious metals have experienced a much more volatile year. Gold trades at $4,318.86 per ounce, down 6.2% over the past month and essentially unchanged year-to-date. The metal reached a record $5,595.47 in January before reversing sharply as the Federal Reserve adopted a more hawkish stance.
Silver has experienced an even greater correction. At $65.18 per ounce, it is down 9.0% year-to-date after reaching $121.65 in January. The gold/silver ratio has consequently increased almost 10% this year, reflecting gold's relative resilience and silver's greater sensitivity to concerns surrounding industrial demand.
Despite the correction, institutional interest in gold remains. Several major asset managers have reportedly rebuilt positions, including Amundi, which expects bullion could return to $5,000 per ounce by year-end.
Base metals remain among the strongest-performing commodity groups after crude oil. LME copper trades at $14,661 per metric ton, up 18.0% year-to-date and close to the record $14,858.50 reached on September 9.
The rally reflects a combination of tariff-related trade distortions, declining inventories, structural demand from data centers and electricity grids, and constrained mine supply. Global copper mine output reportedly declined 1.1% during the first half of the year, raising the possibility of a rare annual decline in production.
Aluminium has delivered more moderate gains, rising 9.1% year-to-date to $3,267 per metric ton, reflecting a less acute supply imbalance and greater flexibility in global production.
Overall, commodities remain highly differentiated. Crude oil and European natural gas continue to reflect the consequences of geopolitical disruption, precious metals are adjusting to a more restrictive monetary environment, and copper remains supported by structural supply constraints and infrastructure-related demand.
