Commodity markets continue to reflect sharply diverging trends across energy, precious metals, industrial metals, and agricultural products, with crude oil undergoing one of the most significant reversals of 2026.
Brent crude trades at $71.69 per barrel and WTI at $68.33 per barrel. Both benchmarks remain strongly positive year-to-date, up 18.0% and 19.2% respectively, after reaching all-time highs earlier in the year when the US-Iran conflict shut the Strait of Hormuz. However, the subsequent reversal has been equally dramatic: both benchmarks have declined approximately 24% to 25% over the past month and a further 2% to 3% over the week.
The US-Iran ceasefire has released additional supply into the market as tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz gradually normalize. At the same time, OPEC+ ratified another modest quota increase, adding 188,000 barrels per day to August production targets in its fifth consecutive increase. Investor positioning has also weakened, with Brent net-long positions among money managers falling to their lowest level since December. The 14-day Relative Strength Index has remained in oversold territory for ten consecutive sessions, reflecting the extent of the recent decline.
Natural gas presents a different picture. At $3.23/MMBtu, prices remain down 10.7% year-to-date but have gained 1.6% over the past week and 2.7% over the month. Rising Australian LNG exports, however, could limit further upside.
Precious metals have regained momentum. Gold trades at $4,145 per ounce, pulling back approximately 1% today after recording its first weekly gain since May, rising 3.2%. Softer US employment data has led traders to reduce expectations for further Federal Reserve rate increases, with swap markets currently assigning only around a 25% probability to a July hike.
Gold’s performance throughout 2026 has remained complex. Despite the Iran war, historically a conventional safe-haven catalyst, the metal underperformed expectations as institutional investors questioned its defensive credentials and ETF holdings declined 2.3% year-to-date. Nevertheless, structural demand remains robust. China’s Huaan Yifu Gold ETF has overtaken the CSI 300 ETF to become the country’s largest ETF, while Hong Kong’s pension authority is reportedly preparing to ease rules governing broader gold ETF investment. Hedge fund managers have also increased net bullish gold positions to a 21-week high.
Silver trades at $61.91 per ounce, down 13.6% year-to-date but up a strong 6.3% over the past week. Platinum has also gained momentum, rising 3.5% over the week to $1,638.61 per ounce. Copper advanced for a third consecutive session to $13,317 per metric ton, supported by fading expectations for additional rate increases and ending a two-week losing streak.
Agricultural commodities are also moving higher, supported by a combination of weather and trade developments. Corn has gained 9.0% over the week amid concerns that a European heat wave may have damaged a significant portion of France’s crop. Soybeans have risen sharply on optimism surrounding the US-China agricultural tariff reduction framework agreed in principle last week, while wheat remains supported by stronger demand, including a substantial purchase by Saudi Arabia.
Overall, commodity markets continue to reflect contrasting forces: oil is adjusting to renewed supply and easing geopolitical risk, precious metals are benefiting from softer rate expectations and structural demand, and agricultural markets are responding to weather disruptions and evolving trade conditions.
